5 Wildwood Dr Unit 8B

Wappingers Falls, NY 12590

$209,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$377
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-941/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-941/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in NY, #3,541 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D.
• Wappingers Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #207 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Myers Corners School (math 41% / reading 64%, grade C-, #984 of 2,108 statewide, top 47%, 825 students, 24% FRL); Wappingers Junior High School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 735 students, 36% FRL); Roy C Ketcham Senior High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,612 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $209k implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Wappingers Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?