2245 Juniper Berry Dr

Minneola, FL 34715

$449,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,963/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$39
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-459/mo
• Annual: $-5,503/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $125,997

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (34.2% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#253 in FL, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Minneola High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,176 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 439 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Minneola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.