20100 N 78th Pl E #1210

Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$450,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,255/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$551
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$894
• Net cashflow: $150/mo
• Annual: $1,805/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $425k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayhawk Elementary School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 358 students, 7% FRL); Mountain Trail Middle School (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 680 students, 24% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 29% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $380k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.