22041 Airbase Rd

Wagram, NC 28352

$169,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,347/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $502/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($502/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#624 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Scotland County Schools (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #160 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wagram Elementary (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,233 of 1,410 statewide, top 88%, 501 students, 99% FRL); Spring Hill Middle (math 25% / reading 29%, grade F, #374 of 475 statewide, top 80%, 643 students, 99% FRL); Scotland High School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,445 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Scotland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scotland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $170k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.