2980 Baldwin St

Detroit, MI 48214

$99,900B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,731 sqft · Built 1912 · Townhouse · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,811/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $556/mo
• Annual: $6,677/yr
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.87%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bunche Preparatory Academy (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #1,230 of 1,397 statewide, top 91%, 401 students, 93% FRL); Southeastern High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #659 of 713 statewide, top 97%, 644 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 90% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 300 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $100k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 10.0% in Detroit — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.