531 Bancroft Chapel Rd

Bloomingdale, TN 37660

$2,710D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 226 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,228/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14
• Tax + insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $948/mo
• Annual: $11,377/yr
• Cap rate: 426.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 1499.39%
• DSCR: 67.71
• 1% rule: 45.31%
• Cash to close: $759

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $3k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $948 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $3k).
• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($2k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $18 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $81 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#343 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Sullivan County (suburban): math 17% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #109 of 139 in TN (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ketron Elementary School (math 16% / reading 19%, grade F, #704 of 952 statewide, top 74%, 563 students, 0% FRL); Sullivan East Middle School (math 8% / reading 11%, grade F, #260 of 333 statewide, top 79%, 573 students, 0% FRL); West Ridge High School (1,683 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $759 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 426.1% vs local median 4.9% in Bloomingdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?