1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
640 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Condo
· Active
· 59 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$932/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$645
Tax + insurance
−$126
HOA
−$269
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$196
Net cashflow
$-304/mo
Annual
$-3,652/yr
Cap rate
3.32%
Cash-on-cash
-10.60%
DSCR
0.53
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$34,440
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $123k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (5.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (24.2% below list).
It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $93k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Avondale Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 328 students, 76% FRL); Woodlawn High Schoolmagnet (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 738 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools at 83% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $105k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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