618 Bird Bay Dr S #317

Venice, FL 34285

$110,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 633 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,643/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$680
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-463/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-463/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (6.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#129 in FL, #1,925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Nokomis School (math 78% / reading 73%, grade A, #211 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,411 students, 35% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $110k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.