100 County Road 646

Cedar Bluff, AL 35959

$235,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,938 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Pending · 297 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-682/mo
• Annual: $-8,189/yr
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.45%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (42.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (49.3% below list).
• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (49.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#152 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Cherokee County (rural): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #58 of 129 in AL (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cherokee County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 0.9% in Cedar Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.