700 E Gobbi St #98

Ukiah, CA 95482

$119,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$595
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $613/mo
• Annual: $7,354/yr
• Cap rate: 16.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.43%
• DSCR: 2.67
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#425 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime D-.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.0% in Ukiah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.