2919 W Lincoln St

Springfield, MO 65802

$70,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Built 1932 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $376/mo
• Annual: $4,508/yr
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.00%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westport Elem. (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,007 of 1,115 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 88% FRL); Westport Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #344 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 433 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 46% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 39% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Springfield R-XII average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and debris need removal.
• Major: fencing — Damaged fencing requires repair or replacement.
• Major: exterior paint — Peeling and faded paint needs repainting.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and debris need removal.
• Major: fencing — Damaged fencing requires repair or replacement.