14657 Bridle Ridge Trl NE

Prior Lake, MN 55372

$415,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,972 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,819/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-508/mo
• Annual: $-6,096/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-508 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (32.1% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#308 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in MN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 699 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $415k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.3% in Prior Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.