218 Chestnut St

Elmira, NY 14904

$99,888C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,336/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $277/mo
• Annual: $3,324/yr
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.88%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $27,969

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $100k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.