6100 21st St N #15

Lealman, FL 33714

$118,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Active · 289 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,817/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$654
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-785/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $33,292

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-785/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (9.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 289 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $822 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#83 in FL, #1,394 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M. Sexton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 449 students, 71% FRL); Meadowlawn Middle School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 832 students, 69% FRL); Northeast High School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,736 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $119k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,817/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 915% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 289 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?