4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,344 sqft ·
Built 1996
· Manufactured
· Active
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,919/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$943
Tax + insurance
−$300
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$823
Net cashflow
$1,853/mo
Annual
$22,231/yr
Cap rate
18.65%
Cash-on-cash
44.13%
DSCR
2.96
1% rule
2.18%
Cash to close
$50,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $180k).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#141 in CA, #4,900 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety D, cost of living F.
Cypress Elementary (suburban): math 67% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #117 of 1,400 in CA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 2.2% in Cypress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($130k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2C968E2AQ1CKFJ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29