18891 E 92nd Pl

Commerce City, CO 80022

$525,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,881 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,206/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $-841/mo
• Annual: $-10,087/yr
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.86%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-841 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (28.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (38.9% below list).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($462k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $321k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#137 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?