3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 245 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,111/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$183
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$233
Net cashflow
$328/mo
Annual
$3,933/yr
Cap rate
11.91%
Cash-on-cash
20.07%
DSCR
1.89
1% rule
1.59%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#335 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Spearman ISD (town): math 62% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #80 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.
Hansford County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2DGF5X4S94RG0Z
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29