844 39th St

New York, NY 11232

$1,999,000D

16 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,252 sqft · Built 1931 · MultiFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,483
• Tax + insurance: −$1,590
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,727
• Net cashflow: $-1,813/mo
• Annual: $-21,761/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $559,720

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 4-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-453/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.68M (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.30M (35.0% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.30M (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $181k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $167k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Ps 169 Sunset Park (math 44% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 934 students, 92% FRL); Ms 51 William Alexander (math 67% / reading 92%, grade A+, #32 of 729 statewide, top 5%, 1,026 students, 61% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $780k; list at $2.00M implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$289k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $12,987/mo this rent would consume 171% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 1713% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?