636 Community Center Dr

Kinston, NC 28504

$125,000C+

4 bd · 0.5 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 318 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,467/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $343/mo
• Annual: $4,117/yr
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.76%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/0.5-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#640 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southwood Elementary (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 241 students, 99% FRL); Woodington Middle (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #262 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 577 students, 100% FRL); South Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 771 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $125k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.8% in Kinston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.