216 Carol Pl

Laguna Beach, FL 32413

$415,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$561
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-394/mo
• Annual: $-4,723/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#283 in FL, #4,522 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1249 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 0.9% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.