3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,170 sqft ·
Built 1979
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 23 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,143/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$448
Tax + insurance
−$60
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$240
Net cashflow
$394/mo
Annual
$4,733/yr
Cap rate
11.83%
Cash-on-cash
19.77%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.34%
Cash to close
$23,940
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $86k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $591 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#297 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 9.7% in Forrest City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2G1D0ZFNVC5887
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29