1655 Elmhurst Rd

Pensacola, FL 32505

$129,000B

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,312 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,233/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$286
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $801/mo
• Annual: $9,616/yr
• Cap rate: 13.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.62%
• DSCR: 2.18
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $801 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.6% in Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,233/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 1458% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.