1025 Saint Matthew Cir

Royse City, TX 75189

$265,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Pending · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,428/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$705
• HOA: −$117
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-294/mo
• Annual: $-3,522/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Davis El (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 500 students, 52% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.