164 N Main St

Greenville, KY 42345

$99,900C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · Built 1936 · SingleFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,023/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $142/mo
• Annual: $1,708/yr
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#176 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Muhlenberg County (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #104 of 165 in KY (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenville Elementary School (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #287 of 676 statewide, top 43%, 577 students, 63% FRL); Muhlenberg County High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #151 of 254 statewide, top 61%, 1,146 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1936 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Muhlenberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Muhlenberg County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.6% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1936 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.