4125 Sycamore Ln

Penn Estates, PA 18301

$274,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,321/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$374
• HOA: −$122
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-105/mo
• Annual: $-1,255/yr
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (15.6% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $232k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#915 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Stroudsburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #315 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.4%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $275k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Penn Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.