2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,285 sqft ·
Built 2002
· Townhouse
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,047/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$202
HOA
−$209
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$430
Net cashflow
$-52/mo
Annual
$-627/yr
Cap rate
6.03%
Cash-on-cash
-0.93%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-627/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (14.7% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#31 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Westwood Elementary School (math 57% / reading 51%, grade C, #95 of 952 statewide, top 10%, 533 students, 0% FRL); Fairview High School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 719 students, 0% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Williamson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.7% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2M9SFK2DEJN81S
· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29