21211 Shore Bluff Dr

Cypress, TX 77433

$280,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 389 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$961
• HOA: −$108
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-616/mo
• Annual: $-7,394/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-616 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walker El (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 1,025 students, 77% FRL); Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 3008 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.7% in Cypress — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.