213 Jones St

Bodfish, CA 93205

$79,000A-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $718/mo
• Annual: $8,615/yr
• Cap rate: 17.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.95%
• DSCR: 2.73
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($546 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,207 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodrow W. Wallace Elementary (418 students, 86% FRL); Woodrow Wallace Middle (273 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 65% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $79k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 5.9% in Bodfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.