14 Gibson St

Whitesboro, NJ 08210

$160,000B-

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,292 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 343 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,070/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $1,205/mo
• Annual: $14,459/yr
• Cap rate: 15.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.05%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.92%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#400 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Middle Township Public School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 472 in NJ (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 877 units permitted in Cape May County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cape May County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.