4443 Purchase St

Harrison, NY 10577

$799,000C

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,122 sqft · Built 1912 · SingleFamily · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$907
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,354
• Net cashflow: $-5/mo
• Annual: $-55/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-55/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $798k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $645k (19.3% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $645k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#355 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Harrison Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #92 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $440k; list at $799k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.2% in Harrison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.