15 Ripley Pl

Norwich, CT 06360

$190,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,591 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$369
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,030/yr
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#18 in CT, #1,391 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: schools D+.
• Norwich School District (urban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 153 in CT (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 14 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $190k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Norwich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.