617 Short 8th St

Lincoln, IL 62656

$69,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 587 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $161/mo
• Annual: $1,932/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($890 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 587 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#509 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Chsd 404 (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #367 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Jr High School (math 22% / reading 44%, grade F, #217 of 665 statewide, top 33%, 341 students, 0% FRL); Lincoln Comm High School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #304 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 786 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 587 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.