2 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,155 sqft ·
Built 1988
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 398 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,287/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,704
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$270
Net cashflow
$-946/mo
Annual
$-11,348/yr
Cap rate
2.80%
Cash-on-cash
-12.47%
DSCR
0.45
1% rule
0.40%
Cash to close
$91,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-946 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (51.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (60.4% below list).
It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $129k (60.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment D-.
Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $236k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2MSYCA3K029A7T
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29