1307 Cashmere Dr

Spring Hill, TN 37179

$264,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,038 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$165
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-215/mo
• Annual: $-2,578/yr
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (27.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#23 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Allendale Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #116 of 952 statewide, top 12%, 709 students, 0% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 45% / reading 51%, grade C-, #23 of 333 statewide, top 7%, 842 students, 0% FRL); Independence High School (math 19% / reading 62%, grade F, #25 of 332 statewide, top 7%, 2,095 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Williamson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; list at $265k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.