1500 N Sunview Pkwy #19

Gilbert, AZ 85234

$247,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 817 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Pending · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,701/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-282/mo
• Annual: $-3,382/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $69,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $248k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (31.3% below list).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $248k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.