1 N/c Aspen Run

East Moriches, NY 11940

$1,560,000B

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,477 sqft · Built 2027 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,181
• Tax + insurance: −$2,600
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $5,019/mo
• Annual: $60,230/yr
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.79%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $436,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.56M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($60k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.56M).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.51M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.51M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $47k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#905 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #97 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Moriches Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #244 of 2,108 statewide, top 13%, 338 students, 22% FRL); East Moriches School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #89 of 729 statewide, top 12%, 309 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 7% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $437k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.2% in East Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.