3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,588/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,138
Tax + insurance
−$362
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$753
Net cashflow
$1,335/mo
Annual
$16,018/yr
Cap rate
13.67%
Cash-on-cash
26.36%
DSCR
2.17
1% rule
1.65%
Cash to close
$60,760
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $217k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $217k).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $210k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in CA, #4,206 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 2.0% in San Diego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,588/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) (locally 2959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2P12C1BDSV4R2T
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29