137 Spruce Ave

Patton Village, CA 96113

$95,682B+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,833 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,524/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$502
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $527/mo
• Annual: $6,321/yr
• Cap rate: 12.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.59%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $26,791

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $662 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,275 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Sage Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,169 of 1,400 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.