785 Almond Rd

Dennard, AR 72080

$179,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 964 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 260 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $949/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-488/mo
• Annual: $-5,852/yr
• Cap rate: 3.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.68%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (39.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (47.0% below list).
• It's been on market 260 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (47.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#468 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Clinton School District (rural): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #41 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cowsert Elementary School (math 57% / reading 40%, grade D, #109 of 454 statewide, top 25%, 613 students, 100% FRL); Clinton Jr High School (math 43% / reading 45%, grade D, #65 of 201 statewide, top 34%, 309 students, 100% FRL); Clinton High School (math 34% / reading 50%, grade F, #38 of 292 statewide, top 14%, 416 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $179k implies a 1179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 260 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.