3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,813 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 339 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,058/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$498
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$432
Net cashflow
$-230/mo
Annual
$-2,756/yr
Cap rate
5.54%
Cash-on-cash
-2.70%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$72,492
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (12.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (20.5% below list).
It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $206k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#99 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Kimberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2PG4DF4JDP53XC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29