4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,653 sqft ·
Built 1937
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 348 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,450/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$650
Tax + insurance
−$196
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$304
Net cashflow
$299/mo
Annual
$3,592/yr
Cap rate
9.19%
Cash-on-cash
10.34%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.17%
Cash to close
$34,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $124k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $124k).
It's been on market 348 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $48k; list at $124k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $1,450/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 2372% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 348 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2PPKXX5Z2MN1RT
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29