4966 State Route 31

Brewerton, NY 13041

$400,000B+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,760 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Active · 873 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,065
• Net cashflow: $1,494/mo
• Annual: $17,931/yr
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.01%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• It's been on market 873 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#618 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $400k implies a 613% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.6% in Brewerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 873 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.