189 Ackerson Lake Dr

Michigan Center, MI 49201

$149,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$572
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-229/mo
• Annual: $-2,748/yr
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.55%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-229 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (4.6% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#314 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Napoleon Community Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #231 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 21 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.0% in Michigan Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.