611 Union St

Millersburg, PA 17061

$149,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,222/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-62/mo
• Annual: $-742/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-742/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (18.0% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $122k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#480 in PA, #4,444 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Millersburg Area SD (town): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #288 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lenkerville El Sch (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 313 students, 49% FRL); Millersburg Area Ms (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #362 of 512 statewide, top 71%, 157 students, 39% FRL); Millersburg Area Shs (math 64%, 229 students, 42% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.