414 Walnut St #414

Robbinsville, NJ 08691

$169,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$800
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $781/mo
• Annual: $9,376/yr
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.81%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 2.06%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $781 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in NJ, #453 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Robbinsville Public Schools (rural): math 52% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #60 of 472 in NJ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.