657 Lewisberry Rd

Lower Allen, PA 17070

$98,900B

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $530/mo
• Annual: $6,359/yr
• Cap rate: 13.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.84%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $27,692

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#231 in PA, #2,010 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• West Shore SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #222 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $85k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 1.9% in Lower Allen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.