149 Fairgarden Rd

Fairgarden, TN 37876

$450,000C+

None bd · None ba · 696 sqft · Built 1964 · MultiFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,124/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$750
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,076
• Net cashflow: $938/mo
• Annual: $11,257/yr
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.93%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $450k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $450k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $410k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#381 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1142 active listings in the ZIP; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 1.9% in Fairgarden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,124/mo this rent would consume 106% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 611% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced.
• Major: exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repair.
• Major: flooring — The flooring in the mobile homes is worn and in need of replacement.
• Major: interior walls — The interior walls are in poor condition and may need to be repaired or replaced.
• Major: HVAC systems — The HVAC systems appear to be old and in need of replacement.