26501 Mainsail Ln

Silver Lakes, CA 92342

$300,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,982 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 726 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$559
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-89/mo
• Annual: $-1,071/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 726 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#822 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Victor Valley Union High (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #407 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Helendale Elementary (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #771 of 1,571 statewide, top 49%, 520 students, 56% FRL); Riverview Middle (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 158 students, 53% FRL); Adelanto High (2,223 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 229 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $79k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $260k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.0% in Silver Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 726 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.