3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,569 sqft ·
Built 1967
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,915/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,877
Tax + insurance
−$289
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$612
Net cashflow
$137/mo
Annual
$1,640/yr
Cap rate
6.75%
Cash-on-cash
1.64%
DSCR
1.07
1% rule
0.81%
Cash to close
$100,212
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $358k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $137 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (18.6% below list).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $291k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#335 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Palma Sola Elementary School (math 72% / reading 59%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 434 students, 56% FRL); Martha B. King Middle School (math 48% / reading 39%, grade D, #329 of 571 statewide, top 58%, 848 students, 63% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 514 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $157k; list at $358k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in West Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2QY85C21TBTW2W
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29