4747 Coulson Church Rd

Woodlawn, VA 24343

$99,900C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $179/mo
• Annual: $2,144/yr
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.66%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (3.3% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#164 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 225 students, 87% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.3% in Woodlawn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.